Releases, meetings, and prints that will move the eight markets this week, filtered, ranked, and translated into one line of plain English. Importance dots indicate market impact, not editorial preference.
The first Friday of the month, and the only US data print on the desk that genuinely matters this week. With the ECB out of the way and Q1 earnings tailing off, NFP carries the macro narrative on its own. Consensus will firm up midweek; the wage component is what desks are watching, not the headline number.
A short note from the desk on what to watch and why.
One print frames the week: Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. With the ECB out of the way and Q1 earnings tailing off, NFP carries the macro narrative on its own. The wage component is what desks are watching, not the headline number. A continued cooling in average hourly earnings keeps the path open for the Fed to follow Europe; an upside surprise reignites the debate about the front of the curve.
The week opens light. London is shut for the bank holiday on Monday, which thins European cash equity flow for the day. AIB Group's Q1 trading update is the only thing of consequence after hours; capital position and net interest margin trajectory are the lines that will move it.
Two soft macro reads frame midweek. ISM Services on Tuesday has been the stickiest US inflation read for months; a print under 52 helps the disinflation case, anything above 54 reignites it. Wednesday's German factory orders and Thursday's Bank of England decision are the European bookends, with the MPC's voting split as the headline and the language on services inflation as the substance.
The Irish corporate calendar is steady rather than dense: AIB Monday, Glanbia Tuesday, CRH Thursday. CRH's US infrastructure exposure is the angle most likely to move the broader narrative; margin commentary will be picked over more carefully than usual given the construction PMI on Wednesday morning.
The MW8 reading reflects all of this. Cautiously positioned, neither grasping for upside nor pricing in trouble. Watch the dollar in the half hour after NFP. That's where the week's true verdict will be delivered.
One email. The calendar's eight events, ranked. The single one to watch. Sent at 18:00 IST every Sunday.