Markets open · Dublin 14:42:08 IST

Methodology v1.0 · Calibrated 22 Apr 2026

Proprietary indicator

A single number
for the whole world.

The MW8 Index compresses the daily moves of the eight most consequential markets (Dublin, London, Frankfurt, New York, Tokyo, the euro, gold and bitcoin) into one number from 0 to 100. Below 30 is fear; above 70 is greed; everything in between is the texture of an ordinary trading week. We publish it every morning, plain and uncomplicated.

MW8 · Live

64^/100

Cautiously bullish

▲ 3.2 · 5-day avg 61

What it is How it's calculated The eight components Reading the zones 90-day history Why these eight FAQ

I.What it is

The MW8 Index is a single number, refreshed continuously through the trading day, that summarises the mood of global markets. It is a composite of the percentage moves of eight underlying markets: five equity indices, one currency, one commodity, and one crypto. They are equally weighted and normalised to a 0-100 scale.

It is intentionally simple. It is not a forecast, a recommendation, or an attempt to capture every nuance. It is a single, honest gauge of which way the wind is blowing today, in one number a person can hold in their head.

If you only check one number this morning, check this one. Then go back to your tea.Editorial principle

Range: 0 to 100. Below 30 is fear, above 70 is greed.
Refresh: Every 5 minutes during cash market hours; hourly otherwise.
Inception: 1 February 2024. Historical backfill to January 2010.

II.How it's calculated

Plain arithmetic. No black boxes.

For each of the eight components, we take the day's percentage change versus the prior session's close. We clip that change to a ±3% band. A 4% surge counts the same as 3%, on the principle that beyond a certain point, an extra basis point of move adds no extra information about mood. We then normalise linearly so that −3% maps to 0 and +3% maps to 100, with 0% mapped to 50.

The eight normalised values are averaged equally: twelve and a half percent each, no exceptions. That average is the MW8 reading.

∑ clip(ΔP_i, ±3%) × ⁵⁰⁄₃ + 50 8

Where ΔP_i is the percentage change of the i-th component versus the prior cash close. Components closed for the session use their last traded change. The crypto and FX inputs use 24-hour returns.

III.The eight components

Today's contribution to the live reading of 64.

Instrument

Weight

Today

Contribution

ISEQ All-ShareDublin · Euronext

12.50%

+0.76%

+1.59

FTSE 100London · LSE

12.50%

+0.41%

+0.86

EuroStoxx 50Frankfurt

12.50%

+0.42%

+0.88

S&P 500New York · pre mkt

12.50%

−0.22%

−0.46

Nikkei 225Tokyo · closed

12.50%

−0.47%

−0.98

EUR / USDForex · 24h

12.50%

+0.34%

+0.71

GoldSpot · USD/oz

12.50%

+0.68%

+1.42

BitcoinCrypto · 24h

12.50%

+1.35%

+2.81

IV.Reading the zones

Five bands across the gauge. Each tells you, at a glance, what kind of week the market is having.

0–20

Capitulation

Forced selling. Liquidity gaps. The kind of tape where prices print well below where they should and stay there.

20–40

Fear

Defensive rotation, broad selling, breadth deteriorating. Risk is being reduced, not redistributed.

40–60

Neutral

Two-way tape. Idiosyncratic moves dominate over thematic ones. The most common reading by a wide margin.

60–80

Bullish

Risk on. Cyclicals leading defensives, breadth firming, credit tight. Conditions traders describe as "easy".

80–100

Euphoria

Indiscriminate buying. Volatility crushed. The reading is a warning, not a green light: euphoria precedes pullbacks more often than not.

V.Ninety-day history

A composite that sits mostly between fear and greed, with the occasional excursion to either side.

MW8 Index · daily close 30D 90D 1Y All

Five equities, one currency, one metal, one network. That's the entire investable world for most people in Ireland, captured in eight prints.On selection

VI.Why these eight

We chose five equity indices to span the major time zones: Dublin opening first, then London, Frankfurt, New York, with Tokyo bridging the overnight. Together they cover roughly 78% of global equity market capitalisation while keeping the count small enough to be honest about.

The EUR/USD cross is the single most traded instrument in the world; it is the cleanest read on dollar strength, which in turn drives nearly every other risk asset move. Gold is the world's oldest hedge. When gold rises and equities rise together, that means something. Bitcoin is the most honest barometer of risk appetite at the speculative tail; we don't have to like it to find the signal useful.

We considered adding bond yields, oil, the VIX, and a credit spread. Every addition made the index marginally more accurate and meaningfully less memorable. Eight is the number where accuracy and clarity meet.

VII.FAQ

Is it predictive?: No. It is descriptive. It tells you what mood the market is in, not what mood it will be in. We've seen too many composite indicators overpromise on prediction; we've chosen not to.
Why equal weights?: Because the alternative is fitting weights to history, and history is a poor guide to which market will matter most next week. Equal weighting is honest about our uncertainty.
What about Asian indices beyond Japan?: The Nikkei is the most tradable, most liquid, and Asian index with the most informative price discovery for a Dublin investor. The Hang Seng would add political risk noise we'd rather isolate.
Why not include the ECB / Fed rate?: Policy rates change rarely; the index would barely move on most days. The 10-year bund and gilt are encoded in equity prices already.
How is the historical backfill computed?: Where Bitcoin lacks data (pre-2010), we substitute its weight equally across the other seven. Where the EuroStoxx 50 or any equity index was closed for a holiday, we carry the prior close.
Will the methodology change?: If we change it, we will publish the change, restate the history under the new method, and keep both series available. We will never quietly retune.

A single numberfor the whole world.

I.What it is

II.How it's calculated

III.The eight components

IV.Reading the zones

V.Ninety-day history

VI.Why these eight

VII.FAQ

The morning eight,delivered before the open.

A single number
for the whole world.

The morning eight,
delivered before the open.